Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

1-1 · 69.6 PWR

96%

ND win probability

Projected line: ND -11.5

2-0 · 88.1 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

54QB vs QB69

-6.3 ND advantage — 15-point index gap over Wisconsin (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). ND Above average.

56WR Room vs WR Room67

-4.6 ND advantage — 11-point index gap over Wisconsin (explosive pass rate and yards per target). ND Above average.

50RB Room vs RB Room67

-7.1 ND advantage — 17-point index gap over Wisconsin (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). ND Above average.

52Run Blocking vs Run Defense70

-7.6 ND advantage — 18-point index gap over Wisconsin (line yards against stuff rate). ND Above average.

54Offensive Line vs Pass Rush68

-5.9 ND advantage — 14-point index gap over Wisconsin (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). ND Above average.

56Pass Game vs Coverage68

-5.0 ND advantage — 12-point index gap over Wisconsin (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). ND Above average.

53Pass Rush vs Offensive Line68

-6.3 ND advantage — 15-point index gap over Wisconsin (pressure differential in the trenches). ND Above average.

53Coverage vs Pass Game68

-6.3 ND advantage — 15-point index gap over Wisconsin (coverage grade against target efficiency). ND Above average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.