Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — Western Michigan is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
MICH win probability
Projected line: MICH -14.7
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-12.2 MICH advantage — 29-point index gap over Western Michigan (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). MICH Above average.
-11.3 MICH advantage — 27-point index gap over Western Michigan (explosive pass rate and yards per target). MICH Above average.
-10.9 MICH advantage — 26-point index gap over Western Michigan (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). MICH Above average.
-10.1 MICH advantage — 24-point index gap over Western Michigan (line yards against stuff rate). MICH Above average.
-12.2 MICH advantage — 29-point index gap over Western Michigan (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). MICH Above average.
-14.7 MICH advantage — 35-point index gap over Western Michigan (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). MICH Above average.
-10.5 MICH advantage — 25-point index gap over Western Michigan (pressure differential in the trenches). MICH Above average.
-8.8 MICH advantage — 21-point index gap over Western Michigan (coverage grade against target efficiency). MICH Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.