Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

0-2 · 45.3 PWR

82%

NEV win probability

Projected line: NEV -5.9

1-1 · 54.8 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

41QB vs QB44

-1.3 NEV advantage — 3-point index gap over Western Kentucky (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). NEV FBS average.

39WR Room vs WR Room47

-3.4 NEV advantage — 8-point index gap over Western Kentucky (explosive pass rate and yards per target). NEV FBS average.

40RB Room vs RB Room51

-4.6 NEV advantage — 11-point index gap over Western Kentucky (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). NEV FBS average.

41Run Blocking vs Run Defense44

-1.3 NEV advantage — 3-point index gap over Western Kentucky (line yards against stuff rate). NEV FBS average.

42Offensive Line vs Pass Rush40

+0.8 WKU advantage — 2-point index gap over Nevada (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). WKU FBS average.

39Pass Game vs Coverage43

-1.7 NEV advantage — 4-point index gap over Western Kentucky (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). NEV FBS average.

38Pass Rush vs Offensive Line47

-3.8 NEV advantage — 9-point index gap over Western Kentucky (pressure differential in the trenches). NEV FBS average.

39Coverage vs Pass Game47

-3.4 NEV advantage — 8-point index gap over Western Kentucky (coverage grade against target efficiency). NEV FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.