Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-2.1 UVA advantage — 5-point index gap over West Virginia (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). UVA Above average.
-2.1 UVA advantage — 5-point index gap over West Virginia (explosive pass rate and yards per target). UVA Above average.
-1.3 UVA advantage — 3-point index gap over West Virginia (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). UVA FBS average.
-0.8 UVA advantage — 2-point index gap over West Virginia (line yards against stuff rate). UVA FBS average.
-1.3 UVA advantage — 3-point index gap over West Virginia (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). UVA FBS average.
-1.3 UVA advantage — 3-point index gap over West Virginia (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). UVA FBS average.
+1.7 WVU advantage — 4-point index gap over Virginia (pressure differential in the trenches). WVU FBS average.
-4.6 UVA advantage — 11-point index gap over West Virginia (coverage grade against target efficiency). UVA Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.