Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
WASH win probability
Projected line: WASH -14.3
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-6.7 WASH advantage — 16-point index gap over Washington State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). WASH FBS average.
-5.9 WASH advantage — 14-point index gap over Washington State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). WASH FBS average.
-4.6 WASH advantage — 11-point index gap over Washington State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). WASH FBS average.
-7.1 WASH advantage — 17-point index gap over Washington State (line yards against stuff rate). WASH Above average.
-9.2 WASH advantage — 22-point index gap over Washington State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). WASH Above average.
-8.8 WASH advantage — 21-point index gap over Washington State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). WASH Above average.
-7.1 WASH advantage — 17-point index gap over Washington State (pressure differential in the trenches). WASH Above average.
-4.2 WASH advantage — 10-point index gap over Washington State (coverage grade against target efficiency). WASH FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.