Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
KSU win probability
Projected line: KSU -10.2
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-8.4 KSU advantage — 20-point index gap over Washington State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). KSU Above average.
-7.6 KSU advantage — 18-point index gap over Washington State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). KSU Above average.
-6.3 KSU advantage — 15-point index gap over Washington State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). KSU Above average.
-6.3 KSU advantage — 15-point index gap over Washington State (line yards against stuff rate). KSU FBS average.
-6.7 KSU advantage — 16-point index gap over Washington State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). KSU FBS average.
-9.7 KSU advantage — 23-point index gap over Washington State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). KSU Above average.
-8.0 KSU advantage — 19-point index gap over Washington State (pressure differential in the trenches). KSU Above average.
-5.9 KSU advantage — 14-point index gap over Washington State (coverage grade against target efficiency). KSU Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.