Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-2.9 LOU advantage — 7-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). LOU FBS average.
-3.8 LOU advantage — 9-point index gap over Colorado (explosive pass rate and yards per target). LOU Above average.
-0.8 LOU advantage — 2-point index gap over Colorado (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). LOU FBS average.
+1.3 COLO advantage — 3-point index gap over Louisville (line yards against stuff rate). COLO FBS average.
+2.9 COLO advantage — 7-point index gap over Louisville (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). COLO FBS average.
+0.4 COLO advantage — 1-point index gap over Louisville (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). COLO FBS average.
+2.9 COLO advantage — 7-point index gap over Louisville (pressure differential in the trenches). COLO Above average.
-2.9 LOU advantage — 7-point index gap over Colorado (coverage grade against target efficiency). LOU Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.