Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — UTSA is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+3.4 UTSA advantage — 8-point index gap over Texas State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). UTSA FBS average.
+1.3 UTSA advantage — 3-point index gap over Texas State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). UTSA FBS average.
+5.5 UTSA advantage — 13-point index gap over Texas State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). UTSA FBS average.
+1.7 UTSA advantage — 4-point index gap over Texas State (line yards against stuff rate). UTSA FBS average.
+5.0 UTSA advantage — 12-point index gap over Texas State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). UTSA FBS average.
+5.5 UTSA advantage — 13-point index gap over Texas State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). UTSA FBS average.
+1.7 UTSA advantage — 4-point index gap over Texas State (pressure differential in the trenches). UTSA FBS average.
+3.4 UTSA advantage — 8-point index gap over Texas State (coverage grade against target efficiency). UTSA FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.