Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

2-0 · 65.9 PWR

96%

TEX win probability

Projected line: TEX -15.1

2-0 · 90.2 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

54QB vs QB78

-10.1 TEX advantage — 24-point index gap over UTSA (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). TEX Top 25 level.

49WR Room vs WR Room80

-13.0 TEX advantage — 31-point index gap over UTSA (explosive pass rate and yards per target). TEX Top 25 level.

56RB Room vs RB Room67

-4.6 TEX advantage — 11-point index gap over UTSA (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). TEX Above average.

53Run Blocking vs Run Defense72

-8.0 TEX advantage — 19-point index gap over UTSA (line yards against stuff rate). TEX Top 25 level.

54Offensive Line vs Pass Rush70

-6.7 TEX advantage — 16-point index gap over UTSA (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). TEX Above average.

50Pass Game vs Coverage69

-8.0 TEX advantage — 19-point index gap over UTSA (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). TEX Above average.

49Pass Rush vs Offensive Line72

-9.7 TEX advantage — 23-point index gap over UTSA (pressure differential in the trenches). TEX Top 25 level.

54Coverage vs Pass Game80

-10.9 TEX advantage — 26-point index gap over UTSA (coverage grade against target efficiency). TEX Top 25 level.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.