Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

0-2 · 55.2 PWR

96%

UTAH win probability

Projected line: UTAH -14.2

2-0 · 78.1 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

38QB vs QB59

-8.8 UTAH advantage — 21-point index gap over Utah State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). UTAH Above average.

38WR Room vs WR Room58

-8.4 UTAH advantage — 20-point index gap over Utah State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). UTAH Above average.

40RB Room vs RB Room59

-8.0 UTAH advantage — 19-point index gap over Utah State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). UTAH Above average.

43Run Blocking vs Run Defense51

-3.4 UTAH advantage — 8-point index gap over Utah State (line yards against stuff rate). UTAH FBS average.

41Offensive Line vs Pass Rush51

-4.2 UTAH advantage — 10-point index gap over Utah State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). UTAH FBS average.

38Pass Game vs Coverage56

-7.6 UTAH advantage — 18-point index gap over Utah State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). UTAH FBS average.

39Pass Rush vs Offensive Line59

-8.4 UTAH advantage — 20-point index gap over Utah State (pressure differential in the trenches). UTAH Above average.

43Coverage vs Pass Game58

-6.3 UTAH advantage — 15-point index gap over Utah State (coverage grade against target efficiency). UTAH Above average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.