Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-2.1 WVU advantage — 5-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). WVU FBS average.
-1.3 WVU advantage — 3-point index gap over Colorado (explosive pass rate and yards per target). WVU FBS average.
+1.3 COLO advantage — 3-point index gap over West Virginia (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). COLO FBS average.
-1.3 WVU advantage — 3-point index gap over Colorado (line yards against stuff rate). WVU FBS average.
-0.4 WVU advantage — 1-point index gap over Colorado (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). WVU FBS average.
+0.4 COLO advantage — 1-point index gap over West Virginia (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). COLO FBS average.
+2.9 COLO advantage — 7-point index gap over West Virginia (pressure differential in the trenches). COLO Above average.
-0.8 WVU advantage — 2-point index gap over Colorado (coverage grade against target efficiency). WVU FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.