Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+4.6 UNLV advantage — 11-point index gap over Hawai'i (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). UNLV FBS average.
+5.0 UNLV advantage — 12-point index gap over Hawai'i (explosive pass rate and yards per target). UNLV FBS average.
+5.9 UNLV advantage — 14-point index gap over Hawai'i (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). UNLV FBS average.
+7.1 UNLV advantage — 17-point index gap over Hawai'i (line yards against stuff rate). UNLV FBS average.
+3.8 UNLV advantage — 9-point index gap over Hawai'i (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). UNLV FBS average.
+3.8 UNLV advantage — 9-point index gap over Hawai'i (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). UNLV FBS average.
+5.0 UNLV advantage — 12-point index gap over Hawai'i (pressure differential in the trenches). UNLV FBS average.
+7.1 UNLV advantage — 17-point index gap over Hawai'i (coverage grade against target efficiency). UNLV FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.