Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — UL Monroe is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
MSST win probability
Projected line: MSST -24.1
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-14.3 MSST advantage — 34-point index gap over UL Monroe (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). MSST Above average.
-13.9 MSST advantage — 33-point index gap over UL Monroe (explosive pass rate and yards per target). MSST Above average.
-16.0 MSST advantage — 38-point index gap over UL Monroe (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). MSST Above average.
-8.8 MSST advantage — 21-point index gap over UL Monroe (line yards against stuff rate). MSST FBS average.
-10.1 MSST advantage — 24-point index gap over UL Monroe (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). MSST Above average.
-13.9 MSST advantage — 33-point index gap over UL Monroe (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). MSST Above average.
-14.3 MSST advantage — 34-point index gap over UL Monroe (pressure differential in the trenches). MSST Above average.
-13.0 MSST advantage — 31-point index gap over UL Monroe (coverage grade against target efficiency). MSST Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.