Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+0.8 CONN advantage — 2-point index gap over Southern Miss (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). CONN FBS average.
+2.5 CONN advantage — 6-point index gap over Southern Miss (explosive pass rate and yards per target). CONN FBS average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
-1.7 USM advantage — 4-point index gap over UConn (line yards against stuff rate). USM FBS average.
+3.4 CONN advantage — 8-point index gap over Southern Miss (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). CONN FBS average.
+2.9 CONN advantage — 7-point index gap over Southern Miss (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). CONN FBS average.
-2.5 USM advantage — 6-point index gap over UConn (pressure differential in the trenches). USM FBS average.
+2.9 CONN advantage — 7-point index gap over Southern Miss (coverage grade against target efficiency). CONN FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.