Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

2-0 · 78.9 PWR

73%

UCLA win probability

Projected line: UCLA -4.2

1-1 · 72.1 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

56QB vs QB52

+1.7 UCLA advantage — 4-point index gap over California (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). UCLA FBS average.

54WR Room vs WR Room55

-0.4 CAL advantage — 1-point index gap over UCLA (explosive pass rate and yards per target). CAL FBS average.

69RB Room vs RB Room50

+8.0 UCLA advantage — 19-point index gap over California (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). UCLA Above average.

68Run Blocking vs Run Defense41

+11.3 UCLA advantage — 27-point index gap over California (line yards against stuff rate). UCLA Above average.

57Offensive Line vs Pass Rush56

+0.4 UCLA advantage — 1-point index gap over California (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). UCLA FBS average.

54Pass Game vs Coverage55

-0.4 CAL advantage — 1-point index gap over UCLA (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). CAL FBS average.

56Pass Rush vs Offensive Line54

+0.8 UCLA advantage — 2-point index gap over California (pressure differential in the trenches). UCLA FBS average.

57Coverage vs Pass Game54

+1.3 UCLA advantage — 3-point index gap over California (coverage grade against target efficiency). UCLA FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.