Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

1-1 · 72.3 PWR

55%

PITT win probability

Projected line: PITT -0.9

2-0 · 73.7 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

51QB vs QB56

-2.1 PITT advantage — 5-point index gap over UCF (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). PITT FBS average.

50WR Room vs WR Room58

-3.4 PITT advantage — 8-point index gap over UCF (explosive pass rate and yards per target). PITT Above average.

66RB Room vs RB Room55

+4.6 UCF advantage — 11-point index gap over Pittsburgh (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). UCF Above average.

63Run Blocking vs Run Defense55

+3.4 UCF advantage — 8-point index gap over Pittsburgh (line yards against stuff rate). UCF Above average.

55Offensive Line vs Pass Rush49

+2.5 UCF advantage — 6-point index gap over Pittsburgh (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). UCF FBS average.

50Pass Game vs Coverage50

Even matchup — both units index the same

59Pass Rush vs Offensive Line56

+1.3 UCF advantage — 3-point index gap over Pittsburgh (pressure differential in the trenches). UCF Above average.

60Coverage vs Pass Game58

+0.8 UCF advantage — 2-point index gap over Pittsburgh (coverage grade against target efficiency). UCF Above average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.