Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-5.0 SMU advantage — 12-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). SMU Above average.
-4.6 SMU advantage — 11-point index gap over Colorado (explosive pass rate and yards per target). SMU Above average.
-1.7 SMU advantage — 4-point index gap over Colorado (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). SMU FBS average.
+0.4 COLO advantage — 1-point index gap over SMU (line yards against stuff rate). COLO FBS average.
-0.8 SMU advantage — 2-point index gap over Colorado (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). SMU FBS average.
-2.5 SMU advantage — 6-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). SMU FBS average.
-1.3 SMU advantage — 3-point index gap over Colorado (pressure differential in the trenches). SMU Above average.
-4.2 SMU advantage — 10-point index gap over Colorado (coverage grade against target efficiency). SMU Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.