Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-8.0 ILL advantage — 19-point index gap over UAB (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). ILL Above average.
-7.1 ILL advantage — 17-point index gap over UAB (explosive pass rate and yards per target). ILL Above average.
-2.9 ILL advantage — 7-point index gap over UAB (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). ILL FBS average.
+1.7 UAB advantage — 4-point index gap over Illinois (line yards against stuff rate). UAB FBS average.
-1.3 ILL advantage — 3-point index gap over UAB (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). ILL FBS average.
-5.0 ILL advantage — 12-point index gap over UAB (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). ILL FBS average.
-8.4 ILL advantage — 20-point index gap over UAB (pressure differential in the trenches). ILL FBS average.
-10.1 ILL advantage — 24-point index gap over UAB (coverage grade against target efficiency). ILL Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.