Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

2-0 · 64.6 PWR

82%

TLSA win probability

Projected line: TLSA -5.8

0-2 · 55.2 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

47QB vs QB40

+2.9 TLSA advantage — 7-point index gap over Sam Houston (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). TLSA FBS average.

46WR Room vs WR Room40

+2.5 TLSA advantage — 6-point index gap over Sam Houston (explosive pass rate and yards per target). TLSA FBS average.

44RB Room vs RB Room33

+4.6 TLSA advantage — 11-point index gap over Sam Houston (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). TLSA FBS average.

45Run Blocking vs Run Defense42

+1.3 TLSA advantage — 3-point index gap over Sam Houston (line yards against stuff rate). TLSA FBS average.

49Offensive Line vs Pass Rush46

+1.3 TLSA advantage — 3-point index gap over Sam Houston (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). TLSA FBS average.

47Pass Game vs Coverage41

+2.5 TLSA advantage — 6-point index gap over Sam Houston (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). TLSA FBS average.

43Pass Rush vs Offensive Line36

+2.9 TLSA advantage — 7-point index gap over Sam Houston (pressure differential in the trenches). TLSA FBS average.

47Coverage vs Pass Game40

+2.9 TLSA advantage — 7-point index gap over Sam Houston (coverage grade against target efficiency). TLSA FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.