Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-11.8 MIZ advantage — 28-point index gap over Troy (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). MIZ Above average.
-8.4 MIZ advantage — 20-point index gap over Troy (explosive pass rate and yards per target). MIZ Above average.
-7.1 MIZ advantage — 17-point index gap over Troy (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). MIZ Above average.
-8.8 MIZ advantage — 21-point index gap over Troy (line yards against stuff rate). MIZ Above average.
-9.7 MIZ advantage — 23-point index gap over Troy (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). MIZ Above average.
-9.2 MIZ advantage — 22-point index gap over Troy (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). MIZ Above average.
-7.6 MIZ advantage — 18-point index gap over Troy (pressure differential in the trenches). MIZ Above average.
-9.7 MIZ advantage — 23-point index gap over Troy (coverage grade against target efficiency). MIZ Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.