Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

2-0 · 75.6 PWR

67%

SC win probability

Projected line: SC -3.2

2-0 · 80.7 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

50QB vs QB70

-8.4 SC advantage — 20-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). SC Above average.

50WR Room vs WR Room67

-7.1 SC advantage — 17-point index gap over Colorado (explosive pass rate and yards per target). SC Above average.

53RB Room vs RB Room71

-7.6 SC advantage — 18-point index gap over Colorado (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). SC Above average.

54Run Blocking vs Run Defense63

-3.8 SC advantage — 9-point index gap over Colorado (line yards against stuff rate). SC Above average.

55Offensive Line vs Pass Rush60

-2.1 SC advantage — 5-point index gap over Colorado (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). SC Above average.

50Pass Game vs Coverage65

-6.3 SC advantage — 15-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). SC Above average.

58Pass Rush vs Offensive Line67

-3.8 SC advantage — 9-point index gap over Colorado (pressure differential in the trenches). SC Above average.

52Coverage vs Pass Game68

-6.7 SC advantage — 16-point index gap over Colorado (coverage grade against target efficiency). SC Above average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.