Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

2-0 · 75.6 PWR

96%

COLO win probability

Projected line: COLO -26.8

1-1 · 32.3 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

50QB vs QB11

+16.4 COLO advantage — 39-point index gap over Navy (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). COLO FBS average.

50WR Room vs WR Room8

+17.6 COLO advantage — 42-point index gap over Navy (explosive pass rate and yards per target). COLO FBS average.

53RB Room vs RB Room26

+11.3 COLO advantage — 27-point index gap over Navy (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). COLO FBS average.

54Run Blocking vs Run Defense18

+15.1 COLO advantage — 36-point index gap over Navy (line yards against stuff rate). COLO FBS average.

55Offensive Line vs Pass Rush19

+15.1 COLO advantage — 36-point index gap over Navy (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). COLO FBS average.

50Pass Game vs Coverage12

+16.0 COLO advantage — 38-point index gap over Navy (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). COLO FBS average.

58Pass Rush vs Offensive Line21

+15.5 COLO advantage — 37-point index gap over Navy (pressure differential in the trenches). COLO Above average.

52Coverage vs Pass Game7

+18.9 COLO advantage — 45-point index gap over Navy (coverage grade against target efficiency). COLO FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.