Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — Toledo is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-2.5 MSU advantage — 6-point index gap over Toledo (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). MSU FBS average.
+1.7 TOL advantage — 4-point index gap over Michigan State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). TOL FBS average.
-3.4 MSU advantage — 8-point index gap over Toledo (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). MSU FBS average.
-10.5 MSU advantage — 25-point index gap over Toledo (line yards against stuff rate). MSU Above average.
-6.7 MSU advantage — 16-point index gap over Toledo (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). MSU FBS average.
+0.8 TOL advantage — 2-point index gap over Michigan State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). TOL FBS average.
-2.9 MSU advantage — 7-point index gap over Toledo (pressure differential in the trenches). MSU FBS average.
-3.4 MSU advantage — 8-point index gap over Toledo (coverage grade against target efficiency). MSU FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.