Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

0-2 · 53.5 PWR

96%

TEX win probability

Projected line: TEX -22.8

2-0 · 90.2 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

46QB vs QB78

-13.4 TEX advantage — 32-point index gap over Texas State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). TEX Top 25 level.

46WR Room vs WR Room80

-14.3 TEX advantage — 34-point index gap over Texas State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). TEX Top 25 level.

43RB Room vs RB Room67

-10.1 TEX advantage — 24-point index gap over Texas State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). TEX Above average.

43Run Blocking vs Run Defense72

-12.2 TEX advantage — 29-point index gap over Texas State (line yards against stuff rate). TEX Top 25 level.

45Offensive Line vs Pass Rush70

-10.5 TEX advantage — 25-point index gap over Texas State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). TEX Above average.

46Pass Game vs Coverage69

-9.7 TEX advantage — 23-point index gap over Texas State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). TEX Above average.

42Pass Rush vs Offensive Line72

-12.6 TEX advantage — 30-point index gap over Texas State (pressure differential in the trenches). TEX Top 25 level.

37Coverage vs Pass Game80

-18.1 TEX advantage — 43-point index gap over Texas State (coverage grade against target efficiency). TEX Top 25 level.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.