Composite projection engine
College Football Matchup Simulator
Team Selection
Positional Comparison — 0 to 100 unit index
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+4.2 TEX advantage — 10-point index gap over LSU (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). TEX Top 25 level.
+5.5 TEX advantage — 13-point index gap over LSU (explosive pass rate and yards per target). TEX Top 25 level.
-1.7 LSU advantage — 4-point index gap over Texas (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). LSU Above average.
-7.6 LSU advantage — 18-point index gap over Texas (line yards against stuff rate). LSU Top 25 level.
-2.1 LSU advantage — 5-point index gap over Texas (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). LSU Top 25 level.
+1.3 TEX advantage — 3-point index gap over LSU (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). TEX Top 25 level.
-0.8 LSU advantage — 2-point index gap over Texas (pressure differential in the trenches). LSU Top 25 level.
+0.4 TEX advantage — 1-point index gap over LSU (coverage grade against target efficiency). TEX Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.