Composite projection engine
College Football Matchup Simulator
Team Selection
Positional Comparison — 0 to 100 unit index
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
Even matchup — both units index the same
+1.3 TENN advantage — 3-point index gap over Texas A&M (explosive pass rate and yards per target). TENN Above average.
+0.8 TENN advantage — 2-point index gap over Texas A&M (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). TENN Above average.
-1.7 TA&M advantage — 4-point index gap over Tennessee (line yards against stuff rate). TA&M Top 25 level.
-1.3 TA&M advantage — 3-point index gap over Tennessee (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). TA&M Above average.
-2.5 TA&M advantage — 6-point index gap over Tennessee (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). TA&M Top 25 level.
+4.2 TENN advantage — 10-point index gap over Texas A&M (pressure differential in the trenches). TENN Top 25 level.
+3.8 TENN advantage — 9-point index gap over Texas A&M (coverage grade against target efficiency). TENN Top 25 level.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.