Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

1-1 · 59.9 PWR

56%

TEM win probability

Projected line: TEM -1.1

1-1 · 58.1 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

45QB vs QB45

Even matchup — both units index the same

44WR Room vs WR Room55

-4.6 TOL advantage — 11-point index gap over Temple (explosive pass rate and yards per target). TOL FBS average.

46RB Room vs RB Room40

+2.5 TEM advantage — 6-point index gap over Toledo (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). TEM FBS average.

46Run Blocking vs Run Defense46

Even matchup — both units index the same

37Offensive Line vs Pass Rush43

-2.5 TOL advantage — 6-point index gap over Temple (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). TOL FBS average.

44Pass Game vs Coverage43

+0.4 TEM advantage — 1-point index gap over Toledo (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). TEM FBS average.

46Pass Rush vs Offensive Line39

+2.9 TEM advantage — 7-point index gap over Toledo (pressure differential in the trenches). TEM FBS average.

49Coverage vs Pass Game52

-1.3 TOL advantage — 3-point index gap over Temple (coverage grade against target efficiency). TOL FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.