Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+0.8 SYR advantage — 2-point index gap over Pittsburgh (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). SYR Above average.
-0.4 PITT advantage — 1-point index gap over Syracuse (explosive pass rate and yards per target). PITT Above average.
+3.4 SYR advantage — 8-point index gap over Pittsburgh (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). SYR Above average.
+4.2 SYR advantage — 10-point index gap over Pittsburgh (line yards against stuff rate). SYR Above average.
+3.8 SYR advantage — 9-point index gap over Pittsburgh (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). SYR Above average.
+2.9 SYR advantage — 7-point index gap over Pittsburgh (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). SYR FBS average.
+2.9 SYR advantage — 7-point index gap over Pittsburgh (pressure differential in the trenches). SYR Above average.
+1.3 SYR advantage — 3-point index gap over Pittsburgh (coverage grade against target efficiency). SYR Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.