Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

2-0 · 75.6 PWR

96%

COLO win probability

Projected line: COLO -17.3

1-1 · 47.7 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

50QB vs QB30

+8.4 COLO advantage — 20-point index gap over Ball State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). COLO FBS average.

50WR Room vs WR Room34

+6.7 COLO advantage — 16-point index gap over Ball State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). COLO FBS average.

53RB Room vs RB Room35

+7.6 COLO advantage — 18-point index gap over Ball State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). COLO FBS average.

54Run Blocking vs Run Defense38

+6.7 COLO advantage — 16-point index gap over Ball State (line yards against stuff rate). COLO FBS average.

55Offensive Line vs Pass Rush37

+7.6 COLO advantage — 18-point index gap over Ball State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). COLO FBS average.

50Pass Game vs Coverage31

+8.0 COLO advantage — 19-point index gap over Ball State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). COLO FBS average.

58Pass Rush vs Offensive Line39

+8.0 COLO advantage — 19-point index gap over Ball State (pressure differential in the trenches). COLO Above average.

52Coverage vs Pass Game33

+8.0 COLO advantage — 19-point index gap over Ball State (coverage grade against target efficiency). COLO FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.