Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

1-1 · 65.3 PWR

67%

DUKE win probability

Projected line: DUKE -3.0

2-0 · 70.2 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

52QB vs QB41

+4.6 STAN advantage — 11-point index gap over Duke (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). STAN FBS average.

52WR Room vs WR Room44

+3.4 STAN advantage — 8-point index gap over Duke (explosive pass rate and yards per target). STAN FBS average.

53RB Room vs RB Room50

+1.3 STAN advantage — 3-point index gap over Duke (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). STAN FBS average.

53Run Blocking vs Run Defense51

+0.8 STAN advantage — 2-point index gap over Duke (line yards against stuff rate). STAN FBS average.

55Offensive Line vs Pass Rush54

+0.4 STAN advantage — 1-point index gap over Duke (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). STAN FBS average.

52Pass Game vs Coverage53

-0.4 DUKE advantage — 1-point index gap over Stanford (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). DUKE FBS average.

49Pass Rush vs Offensive Line51

-0.8 DUKE advantage — 2-point index gap over Stanford (pressure differential in the trenches). DUKE FBS average.

50Coverage vs Pass Game43

+2.9 STAN advantage — 7-point index gap over Duke (coverage grade against target efficiency). STAN FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.