Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-4.2 AUB advantage — 10-point index gap over Southern Miss (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). AUB Above average.
-5.5 AUB advantage — 13-point index gap over Southern Miss (explosive pass rate and yards per target). AUB Above average.
-2.1 AUB advantage — 5-point index gap over Southern Miss (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). AUB Above average.
-5.0 AUB advantage — 12-point index gap over Southern Miss (line yards against stuff rate). AUB Above average.
-3.4 AUB advantage — 8-point index gap over Southern Miss (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). AUB Above average.
-6.7 AUB advantage — 16-point index gap over Southern Miss (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). AUB Above average.
-5.0 AUB advantage — 12-point index gap over Southern Miss (pressure differential in the trenches). AUB FBS average.
-5.9 AUB advantage — 14-point index gap over Southern Miss (coverage grade against target efficiency). AUB Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.