Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-1.3 HOU advantage — 3-point index gap over Colorado (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). HOU FBS average.
-1.3 HOU advantage — 3-point index gap over Colorado (explosive pass rate and yards per target). HOU FBS average.
+0.4 COLO advantage — 1-point index gap over Houston (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). COLO FBS average.
+2.1 COLO advantage — 5-point index gap over Houston (line yards against stuff rate). COLO FBS average.
+1.3 COLO advantage — 3-point index gap over Houston (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). COLO FBS average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
+2.1 COLO advantage — 5-point index gap over Houston (pressure differential in the trenches). COLO Above average.
-0.4 HOU advantage — 1-point index gap over Colorado (coverage grade against target efficiency). HOU FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.