Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+13.9 USF advantage — 33-point index gap over Army (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). USF FBS average.
+12.2 USF advantage — 29-point index gap over Army (explosive pass rate and yards per target). USF FBS average.
+5.0 USF advantage — 12-point index gap over Army (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). USF FBS average.
+10.5 USF advantage — 25-point index gap over Army (line yards against stuff rate). USF FBS average.
+12.2 USF advantage — 29-point index gap over Army (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). USF FBS average.
+9.2 USF advantage — 22-point index gap over Army (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). USF FBS average.
+10.5 USF advantage — 25-point index gap over Army (pressure differential in the trenches). USF FBS average.
+16.0 USF advantage — 38-point index gap over Army (coverage grade against target efficiency). USF FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.