Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — South Alabama is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-2.1 TULN advantage — 5-point index gap over South Alabama (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). TULN FBS average.
-1.7 TULN advantage — 4-point index gap over South Alabama (explosive pass rate and yards per target). TULN FBS average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
-1.7 TULN advantage — 4-point index gap over South Alabama (line yards against stuff rate). TULN FBS average.
-0.8 TULN advantage — 2-point index gap over South Alabama (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). TULN FBS average.
-5.5 TULN advantage — 13-point index gap over South Alabama (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). TULN FBS average.
-0.8 TULN advantage — 2-point index gap over South Alabama (pressure differential in the trenches). TULN FBS average.
-1.3 TULN advantage — 3-point index gap over South Alabama (coverage grade against target efficiency). TULN FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.