Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — SMU is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+2.1 SMU advantage — 5-point index gap over Louisville (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). SMU Above average.
+0.8 SMU advantage — 2-point index gap over Louisville (explosive pass rate and yards per target). SMU Above average.
+0.8 SMU advantage — 2-point index gap over Louisville (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). SMU FBS average.
+2.9 SMU advantage — 7-point index gap over Louisville (line yards against stuff rate). SMU Above average.
+5.5 SMU advantage — 13-point index gap over Louisville (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). SMU Above average.
+5.5 SMU advantage — 13-point index gap over Louisville (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). SMU Above average.
+2.5 SMU advantage — 6-point index gap over Louisville (pressure differential in the trenches). SMU FBS average.
-1.3 LOU advantage — 3-point index gap over SMU (coverage grade against target efficiency). LOU Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.