Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+1.3 SMU advantage — 3-point index gap over Florida State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). SMU Above average.
+0.4 SMU advantage — 1-point index gap over Florida State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). SMU Above average.
-2.1 FSU advantage — 5-point index gap over SMU (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). FSU Above average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
+1.7 SMU advantage — 4-point index gap over Florida State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). SMU Above average.
+2.5 SMU advantage — 6-point index gap over Florida State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). SMU Above average.
-1.3 FSU advantage — 3-point index gap over SMU (pressure differential in the trenches). FSU Above average.
-1.7 FSU advantage — 4-point index gap over SMU (coverage grade against target efficiency). FSU Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.