Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

2-0 · 75.6 PWR

96%

COLO win probability

Projected line: COLO -20.8

0-2 · 42.0 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

50QB vs QB29

+8.8 COLO advantage — 21-point index gap over UL Monroe (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). COLO FBS average.

50WR Room vs WR Room28

+9.2 COLO advantage — 22-point index gap over UL Monroe (explosive pass rate and yards per target). COLO FBS average.

53RB Room vs RB Room33

+8.4 COLO advantage — 20-point index gap over UL Monroe (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). COLO FBS average.

54Run Blocking vs Run Defense23

+13.0 COLO advantage — 31-point index gap over UL Monroe (line yards against stuff rate). COLO FBS average.

55Offensive Line vs Pass Rush31

+10.1 COLO advantage — 24-point index gap over UL Monroe (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). COLO FBS average.

50Pass Game vs Coverage31

+8.0 COLO advantage — 19-point index gap over UL Monroe (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). COLO FBS average.

58Pass Rush vs Offensive Line34

+10.1 COLO advantage — 24-point index gap over UL Monroe (pressure differential in the trenches). COLO Above average.

52Coverage vs Pass Game29

+9.7 COLO advantage — 23-point index gap over UL Monroe (coverage grade against target efficiency). COLO FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.