Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

2-1 · 56.1 PWR

61%

SJSU win probability

Projected line: SJSU -1.9

1-2 · 53.0 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

41QB vs QB39

+0.8 SJSU advantage — 2-point index gap over Eastern Michigan (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). SJSU Below average.

44WR Room vs WR Room41

+1.3 SJSU advantage — 3-point index gap over Eastern Michigan (explosive pass rate and yards per target). SJSU FBS average.

39RB Room vs RB Room39

Even matchup — both units index the same

39Run Blocking vs Run Defense46

-2.9 EMU advantage — 7-point index gap over San José State (line yards against stuff rate). EMU FBS average.

43Offensive Line vs Pass Rush43

Even matchup — both units index the same

43Pass Game vs Coverage46

-1.3 EMU advantage — 3-point index gap over San José State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). EMU FBS average.

38Pass Rush vs Offensive Line44

-2.5 EMU advantage — 6-point index gap over San José State (pressure differential in the trenches). EMU FBS average.

41Coverage vs Pass Game40

+0.4 SJSU advantage — 1-point index gap over Eastern Michigan (coverage grade against target efficiency). SJSU Below average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.