Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

0-2 · 55.2 PWR

60%

TROY win probability

Projected line: TROY -1.9

2-0 · 58.2 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

40QB vs QB41

-0.4 TROY advantage — 1-point index gap over Sam Houston (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). TROY Below average.

40WR Room vs WR Room46

-2.5 TROY advantage — 6-point index gap over Sam Houston (explosive pass rate and yards per target). TROY FBS average.

33RB Room vs RB Room42

-3.8 TROY advantage — 9-point index gap over Sam Houston (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). TROY FBS average.

31Run Blocking vs Run Defense50

-8.0 TROY advantage — 19-point index gap over Sam Houston (line yards against stuff rate). TROY FBS average.

36Offensive Line vs Pass Rush46

-4.2 TROY advantage — 10-point index gap over Sam Houston (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). TROY FBS average.

40Pass Game vs Coverage44

-1.7 TROY advantage — 4-point index gap over Sam Houston (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). TROY FBS average.

46Pass Rush vs Offensive Line37

+3.8 SHSU advantage — 9-point index gap over Troy (pressure differential in the trenches). SHSU FBS average.

41Coverage vs Pass Game45

-1.7 TROY advantage — 4-point index gap over Sam Houston (coverage grade against target efficiency). TROY FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.