Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
FRES win probability
Projected line: FRES -4.3
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-1.7 FRES advantage — 4-point index gap over Sacramento State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). FRES FBS average.
-2.1 FRES advantage — 5-point index gap over Sacramento State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). FRES FBS average.
+2.1 SAC advantage — 5-point index gap over Fresno State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). SAC Below average.
-5.9 FRES advantage — 14-point index gap over Sacramento State (line yards against stuff rate). FRES FBS average.
+2.5 SAC advantage — 6-point index gap over Fresno State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). SAC FBS average.
+4.6 SAC advantage — 11-point index gap over Fresno State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). SAC Below average.
+7.6 SAC advantage — 18-point index gap over Fresno State (pressure differential in the trenches). SAC FBS average.
+0.4 SAC advantage — 1-point index gap over Fresno State (coverage grade against target efficiency). SAC FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.