Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — Sacramento State is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
EMU win probability
Projected line: EMU -3.5
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
Even matchup — both units index the same
-0.4 EMU advantage — 1-point index gap over Sacramento State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). EMU Below average.
+0.4 SAC advantage — 1-point index gap over Eastern Michigan (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). SAC Below average.
-4.2 EMU advantage — 10-point index gap over Sacramento State (line yards against stuff rate). EMU FBS average.
-0.4 EMU advantage — 1-point index gap over Sacramento State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). EMU FBS average.
-2.5 EMU advantage — 6-point index gap over Sacramento State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). EMU FBS average.
+0.8 SAC advantage — 2-point index gap over Eastern Michigan (pressure differential in the trenches). SAC FBS average.
+2.5 SAC advantage — 6-point index gap over Eastern Michigan (coverage grade against target efficiency). SAC FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.