Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+1.3 PUR advantage — 3-point index gap over UCLA (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). PUR Above average.
+2.1 PUR advantage — 5-point index gap over UCLA (explosive pass rate and yards per target). PUR Above average.
-6.7 UCLA advantage — 16-point index gap over Purdue (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). UCLA Above average.
-0.4 UCLA advantage — 1-point index gap over Purdue (line yards against stuff rate). UCLA Above average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
+0.8 PUR advantage — 2-point index gap over UCLA (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). PUR Above average.
+1.3 PUR advantage — 3-point index gap over UCLA (pressure differential in the trenches). PUR Above average.
+0.4 PUR advantage — 1-point index gap over UCLA (coverage grade against target efficiency). PUR FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.