Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — Oregon State is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-2.1 HOU advantage — 5-point index gap over Oregon State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). HOU FBS average.
-1.7 HOU advantage — 4-point index gap over Oregon State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). HOU FBS average.
-3.8 HOU advantage — 9-point index gap over Oregon State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). HOU FBS average.
Even matchup — both units index the same
-2.1 HOU advantage — 5-point index gap over Oregon State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). HOU FBS average.
-0.4 HOU advantage — 1-point index gap over Oregon State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). HOU FBS average.
-3.4 HOU advantage — 8-point index gap over Oregon State (pressure differential in the trenches). HOU FBS average.
-3.8 HOU advantage — 9-point index gap over Oregon State (coverage grade against target efficiency). HOU FBS average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.