Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

1-1 · 84.8 PWR

96%

ORE win probability

Projected line: ORE -10.5

1-1 · 67.9 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

70QB vs QB47

+9.7 ORE advantage — 23-point index gap over Oklahoma State (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). ORE Above average.

72WR Room vs WR Room47

+10.5 ORE advantage — 25-point index gap over Oklahoma State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). ORE Top 25 level.

70RB Room vs RB Room47

+9.7 ORE advantage — 23-point index gap over Oklahoma State (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). ORE Above average.

71Run Blocking vs Run Defense50

+8.8 ORE advantage — 21-point index gap over Oklahoma State (line yards against stuff rate). ORE Above average.

71Offensive Line vs Pass Rush46

+10.5 ORE advantage — 25-point index gap over Oklahoma State (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). ORE Above average.

72Pass Game vs Coverage47

+10.5 ORE advantage — 25-point index gap over Oklahoma State (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). ORE Top 25 level.

69Pass Rush vs Offensive Line51

+7.6 ORE advantage — 18-point index gap over Oklahoma State (pressure differential in the trenches). ORE Above average.

68Coverage vs Pass Game47

+8.8 ORE advantage — 21-point index gap over Oklahoma State (coverage grade against target efficiency). ORE Above average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.