Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator


VT win probability
Projected line: VT -14.1
Positional unit index โ 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average ยท 72+ = Top 25 level ยท 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-8.4 VT advantage โ 20-point index gap over Old Dominion (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). VT Above average.
-5.9 VT advantage โ 14-point index gap over Old Dominion (explosive pass rate and yards per target). VT Above average.
-12.2 VT advantage โ 29-point index gap over Old Dominion (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). VT Above average.
-13.4 VT advantage โ 32-point index gap over Old Dominion (line yards against stuff rate). VT Above average.
-17.6 VT advantage โ 42-point index gap over Old Dominion (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). VT Top 25 level.
-7.6 VT advantage โ 18-point index gap over Old Dominion (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). VT Above average.
-5.9 VT advantage โ 14-point index gap over Old Dominion (pressure differential in the trenches). VT Above average.
-5.5 VT advantage โ 13-point index gap over Old Dominion (coverage grade against target efficiency). VT Above average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.