Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

1-1 · 67.9 PWR

61%

OKST win probability

Projected line: OKST -2.0

2-0 · 64.6 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

47QB vs QB47

Even matchup — both units index the same

47WR Room vs WR Room46

+0.4 OKST advantage — 1-point index gap over Tulsa (explosive pass rate and yards per target). OKST FBS average.

47RB Room vs RB Room44

+1.3 OKST advantage — 3-point index gap over Tulsa (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). OKST FBS average.

49Run Blocking vs Run Defense47

+0.8 OKST advantage — 2-point index gap over Tulsa (line yards against stuff rate). OKST FBS average.

51Offensive Line vs Pass Rush43

+3.4 OKST advantage — 8-point index gap over Tulsa (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). OKST FBS average.

47Pass Game vs Coverage47

Even matchup — both units index the same

46Pass Rush vs Offensive Line49

-1.3 TLSA advantage — 3-point index gap over Oklahoma State (pressure differential in the trenches). TLSA FBS average.

47Coverage vs Pass Game47

Even matchup — both units index the same

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.