Composite projection engine

Matchup Simulator

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

ABC| Sat 1:30 PM MT

1-1 · 84.0 PWR

55%

OU win probability

Projected line: OU -0.9

2-0 · 82.5 PWR

Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

74QB vs QB64

+4.2 OU advantage — 10-point index gap over Michigan (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). OU Top 25 level.

73WR Room vs WR Room63

+4.2 OU advantage — 10-point index gap over Michigan (explosive pass rate and yards per target). OU Top 25 level.

63RB Room vs RB Room65

-0.8 MICH advantage — 2-point index gap over Oklahoma (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). MICH Above average.

62Run Blocking vs Run Defense65

-1.3 MICH advantage — 3-point index gap over Oklahoma (line yards against stuff rate). MICH Above average.

66Offensive Line vs Pass Rush67

-0.4 MICH advantage — 1-point index gap over Oklahoma (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). MICH Above average.

74Pass Game vs Coverage70

+1.7 OU advantage — 4-point index gap over Michigan (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). OU Top 25 level.

74Pass Rush vs Offensive Line66

+3.4 OU advantage — 8-point index gap over Michigan (pressure differential in the trenches). OU Top 25 level.

69Coverage vs Pass Game63

+2.5 OU advantage — 6-point index gap over Michigan (coverage grade against target efficiency). OU Above average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.