Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — Ohio State is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
+0.4 OSU advantage — 1-point index gap over Texas (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). OSU Top 25 level.
-1.3 TEX advantage — 3-point index gap over Ohio State (explosive pass rate and yards per target). TEX Top 25 level.
+2.5 OSU advantage — 6-point index gap over Texas (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). OSU Top 25 level.
-1.7 TEX advantage — 4-point index gap over Ohio State (line yards against stuff rate). TEX Top 25 level.
+0.4 OSU advantage — 1-point index gap over Texas (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). OSU Above average.
+3.8 OSU advantage — 9-point index gap over Texas (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). OSU Top 25 level.
-0.4 TEX advantage — 1-point index gap over Ohio State (pressure differential in the trenches). TEX Top 25 level.
-0.8 TEX advantage — 2-point index gap over Ohio State (coverage grade against target efficiency). TEX Top 25 level.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.