Composite projection engine
Matchup Simulator
Color clash detected — Ohio is shown in their alternate road accent for contrast.
Positional unit index — 0 to 100 scale
50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.
-2.9 USA advantage — 7-point index gap over Ohio (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). USA Below average.
-2.1 USA advantage — 5-point index gap over Ohio (explosive pass rate and yards per target). USA Below average.
-1.3 USA advantage — 3-point index gap over Ohio (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). USA FBS average.
-3.8 USA advantage — 9-point index gap over Ohio (line yards against stuff rate). USA FBS average.
-2.5 USA advantage — 6-point index gap over Ohio (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). USA FBS average.
-3.4 USA advantage — 8-point index gap over Ohio (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). USA FBS average.
-2.9 USA advantage — 7-point index gap over Ohio (pressure differential in the trenches). USA FBS average.
-1.7 USA advantage — 4-point index gap over Ohio (coverage grade against target efficiency). USA Below average.
Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.