Composite projection engine

College Football Matchup Simulator

Team Selection

Away team (Team A)

Home team (Team B)

7-2 · 46.5 PWR

51%

OHIO win probability

Projected line: OHIO -0.1

5-4 · 46.3 PWR

50 = FBS average · 72+ = Top 25 level · 90+ = elite national top five. Week 3 weighting: 60% preseason roster talent + 40% live 2026 game EPA.

33QB vs QB42

-3.8 M-OH advantage — 9-point index gap over Ohio (passing EPA per play, completion rate and yards per attempt). M-OH FBS average.

35WR Room vs WR Room49

-5.9 M-OH advantage — 14-point index gap over Ohio (explosive pass rate and yards per target). M-OH FBS average.

40RB Room vs RB Room35

+2.1 OHIO advantage — 5-point index gap over Miami (OH) (yards per carry, line yards and rush EPA). OHIO Below average.

42Run Blocking vs Run Defense40

+0.8 OHIO advantage — 2-point index gap over Miami (OH) (line yards against stuff rate). OHIO FBS average.

38Offensive Line vs Pass Rush39

-0.4 M-OH advantage — 1-point index gap over Ohio (pass-block win rate against pressure rate). M-OH Below average.

34Pass Game vs Coverage38

-1.7 M-OH advantage — 4-point index gap over Ohio (passing EPA against coverage efficiency). M-OH Below average.

37Pass Rush vs Offensive Line42

-2.1 M-OH advantage — 5-point index gap over Ohio (pressure differential in the trenches). M-OH FBS average.

36Coverage vs Pass Game47

-4.6 M-OH advantage — 11-point index gap over Ohio (coverage grade against target efficiency). M-OH FBS average.

Projections use opponent-adjusted efficiency, SOS, and unit-level grades derived from live 2026 team data.